מרוקאי, אשכנזיה ודוס נכנסו לפאב
המפלגות מהדור החדש בישראל הן כמו להקות בנים. לא עוד זה שהיה מזכ"ל מועצת הפועלים וה-ע' מועצה אזורית בדימוס וגם לא עוד ההוא שהביא הכי הרבה משאיות עם ארגזים בפריימריז. ברוכים הבאים לעולם הרשימות המלוהקות. אחד קשוח, אחד רגיש, אחד יפיוף, אחד כזה ואחד כזה. פעיל חברתי, דתיה פמיניסטית, ראש עיר מבטיח בנגב והייטקיסט נכנסו לפרדס.
זה קשור למעבר של החברה הישראלית מ"כור היתוך" ל"קערת סלט". כור ההיתוך היה אמור להתיך אותנו לסגסוגת אחידה בצלמם ובדמותם של המרכיבים הדומיננטיים שלה. הדבר הזה נכשל ורבים ביכו את מותה של האחדות המדומיינת מימי מפא"י – מפד"ל העליזים והחברה המגויסת של ראשית ימי המדינה, ופירוקה לאוסף של מגזרים. אבל המגזרים היו שם תמיד. הם רק התחילו להרים ראש, וכור ההיתוך המתקרר התחיל להתפרק שוב למרכיביו היסודיים וכך נוצרה "קערת הסלט". חברה שעשויה ממרכיבים רבים ושונים, ששואלת את עצמה מהם הדברים שמחברים אותם לסלט אחד ולא סתם לאוסף של ירקות.
אותם חלקים בחברה דוברת העברית שהיו המאורגנים ביותר במבנה של "מגזר" הצליחו לשמור באופן יחסי על טהרת מרכיביהם המקוריים כשכור ההיתוך התפרק. מדובר בעיקר על חרדים שאותם כור ההיתוך לא הצליח להתיך, חילונים שהיו אמורים להיות המרכיב שיתיך את כולם אליו ונכשל בכך ודתיים לאומיים שניסו להיות גם וגם וטרם אמרו את המילה האחרונה. בשלושתם יש, כמובן, דומיננטיות אשכנזית בולטת.
אצל כל מי שאינו צבר אשכנזי חרדי, חילוני או סרוג יש זהויות (לרוב מורכבות והיברידיות) אבל אין ממש מגזרים מאורגנים. בפריפריה של קבוצות הכוח המאורגנות בצורת מגזר נמצאים אלו שההתארגנות המגזרית שלהם רופפת, שלא היו במיינסטרים של מגזר כלשהו, ששייכים ליותר ממגזר אחד, שעברו בין מגזר למגזר, שנפלו ביניהם. היות שהם לא כל כך מחוברים לרשתות תמיכה מגזריות, מפלגות מגזריות פחות מדברות אליהם ומפלגות שמשקפות את מורכבות זהותם וזהות החברה הישראלית מדברות אליהם יותר.
לכן, מפלגה שרוצה להיות גדולה ומשמעותית תצטרך להתרחב מבסיס המצביעים המסורתי שלה ולהתחבר עם ציבורים כאלה, ובשביל זה צריך להיות מפלגת Big Tent. כי בנאדם לא מרגיש נוח באוהל קטן וצפוף שבו כולם חוץ ממנו גדלו יחד בתנועת הנוער וכן מרגיש נוח באוהל גדול עם אוכלוסיה מגוונת שבו כל אחד יכול למצוא לעצמו פינה ולא להרגיש כמו "עורב לבן". עד לאחרונה, המפלגה היחידה שהצליחה לייצר זאת הייתה הליכוד, ולכן היא מפלגת השלטון. ולאחרונה, מפלגות אחרות עלו על הטריק והן רוצות גם.
הגירושין המלוכלכים של משפחת הפועלים
הראשון לזהות היה ליברמן. הוא הבין שאת דור דוברי הרוסית המבוגרים מחליף דור צעיר שזהותו מורכבת יותר, שלא מרגיש נאמנות לשום מפלגה ומתפזר לכל אורכו ורוחבו של השדה הפוליטי. לכן הוא נטש, גם במדיניותו, את דוברי הרוסית והרכיב את הרשימה המלוהקת הכלל ישראלית הראשונה. אחריו עשה זאת - ובהצלחה רבה הרבה יותר יען כי לא מדובר במהגר עם מבטא אלא בנציג הישראליות עלי אדמות - לפיד. ראה כחלון כי טוב ואת הרשימה שלו, לפי השמועות, הוא עומד להרכיב באותה דרך. ואז, יש גם את החוקה החדשה במפלגת הבית היהודי.
החוקה החדשה נותנת המון כוח ליו"ר לעצב את הרשימה לכנסת, שליטה לא מבוטלת בנושאים שהמפלגה תעסוק בהם ומחלישה את מחויבותה למרכיבים אחרים של ההתארגנות המגזרית, כמו בני עקיבא. ברמה הפוליטית, מדובר בהרחבת הקהלים. בנט רוצה עוד איילת שקד ושכמותה. אנשים שאינם מהמגזר אך מוכנים לשלב ידיים אתו פוליטית תוך קבלת מנהיגותו, וכך גם לגרום לאנשים חדשים שנכנסים לאוהל להרגיש יותר בנוח, שכן יש בו גם כאלה שדומים להם. במילים אחרות, יותר מנדטים. אבל יש פה רמה עמוקה וחשובה יותר שבלי להבין אותה, לדעתי, אי אפשר להבין את הפוליטיקה הישראלית בכלל.
והרמה העמוקה יותר היא הרצון של המפד"ל להיות מפא"י חדשה. פרופ' אשר כהן, מתומכי החוקה הגדולים, כתב שכמו שמפא"י עשתה מהלך של "ממעמד לעם" והשיגה כך עשרות שנות דומיננטיות, מפד"ל תעשה מהלך של "ממגזר לעם" ותשיג את אותו הדבר.
קשה להגזים בחשיבותה של הדינאמיקה בין מפא"י ומפד"ל, ספיחיהן, יורשיהן, נגזרותיהן המוסדות שקשורים אליהן והתפיסות הפוליטיות, החברתיות והתרבותיות שהתעצבו בהן על ישראל (להלן, המילים מפא”י ומפד”ל מתייחסות לכל הדברים האלה ולא למפלגות עצמן). תנועת ההתנחלות, למשל, נתפסת בשיח הדתי לאומי כהמשך טבעי של ההתיישבות העובדת החלוצית של טרום קום המדינה. ההולכים בדרכו של הרב קוק ודאי יסכימו על מקומם החשוב של אנשי המעשה החילונים בתקומת ישראל, אך בהמשך צריך להתווסף לה גם המימד הדתי-רוחני, והחילונים יצטרפו לאתחלתא גאולה שתובל על ידי החלוץ הסרוג שלפני המחנה. פעם קראו למעבר הצפוי של האחראי על כל העניינים הדתיים האלה לתפקיד המוביל גם בעולם המעשה החילוני "ממשגיח הכשרות של קרון המסעדה לתפקיד נהג הקטר". והחוקה החדשה בבית היהודי אמורה להשיג בדיוק את זה.
ועכשיו, קצת היסטוריה: מפלגת פועלי ארץ ישראל ומפלגת הפועלים הדתית לאומית על גרסאותיהן ונגזרותיהן היו בעלות ברית ושותפות קואליציוניות קבועות מקום המדינה ועד לשנות השבעים. הנישואין ביניהן התחילו להתפרק כהשטחים שישראל תפסה ב-67 הפכו למוקד העניין המרכזי של המפד"ל והיא הפסיקה להיות "המפד"ל הישנה והטובה" כמו ששמאלנים אוהבים אותה ומתגעגעים אליה עד היום. כשמפא"י התמוטטה, המפד"ל טרם הבשילה להחליף אותה בתפקיד נהג הקטר. את הדבר הזה חטף ממנה הליכוד ולא רק שחטף, התחיל לעשות "נסיגות בגאולה". החזיר את סיני ופינה התנחלויות. אז המפד"ל ושו"ת מצאו את עצמן מסתובבים במדבר ארבעים שנה נוספות, הפעם ככינור שני לליכוד.
יורשי המפא"יניקים, ברגע שאיבדו את השלטון, גילו את כל מה שלא הטריד אותם בתקופה שהחזיקו בו ונעשו מגיני הדמוקרטיה, זכויות האדם, הפלורליזם ושאר דברים מוסריים ויפים. הם התבצרו במאחזי כוח שונים מחוץ לפוליטיקה הקלאסית, שרובם קשורים לכל מני לופטגשעפט. “עסקי אוויר". דברים אינטלקטואליים. אז אלו שבאו מרקע מרקסיסטי מטריאליסטי כותבים דו"חות ומאמרים ורואים בעיניים כלות את יריביהם בונים את המציאות הפיזית. ואלה שבאו מתנועה דתית רוחנית בונים יישובים ומפלסים כבישים ורואים בעיניים כלות את יריביהם מייצרים מיתוסים ורעיונות.
אין מלחמה מלוכלכת כמו בין בני זוג גרושים שנאבקים על המשמורת, ואין בפוליטיקה הישראלית מלחמה מלוכלכת מזאת שבין "השמאלנים" ו"המתנחלים". שמות קוד מעורפלים למי שנתפסים כצאצאים הרוחניים של אחת התנועות האלו, מפא"י ומפד"ל. זה גם מה שעדיין מכתיב את החולקה בין "שמאל" ו"ימין". רוב הישראלים שומעים את ה"מוזיקה" המגזרית שברקע ולא ממש מוצאים את עצמם באף אחד מהנ"ל, מתקשים יותר ויותר לקרוא לעצמם "ימין" או "שמאל", מאבדים עניין בכל הסוג הזה של הפוליטיקה וזה מה שעומד מאחורי הפופולריות הגוברת של מפלגות "מרכז" מגוונות זהותית שבורחות מהחלוקה הקלאסית הזאת ומסוגיות הליבה שלה.
אז איך מפלגה שהדנ"א שלה הוא מגזרי מאוד ואידיאולוגי מאוד הופכת להיות ליותר כלל ישראלית, מגדילה את האוהל שלה אבל בלי לאבד את הזהות האידיאולוגית או המגזרית? התכנית היא כדלקמן: קודם כל, הבינו מנסחי החוקה, שהמפלגה לא יכולה להשתנות בלי מהלך כוחני. ההאשמות מקרב המתנגדים על כך שבנט נעשה ל"דיקטטור" די נכונות, אבל כאן נוצרה דילמה בין דמוקרטיה ועממיות. מי שמכיר היסטוריה יוונית ורומית עתיקה לא יתקשה לזהות את הדפוס שבו מעמד אוליגארכי הוא זה שמנהל את הדמוקרטיה והעם הפשוט, שמודר ע"י האוליגארכיה הזאת, תומך ב"מנהיג חזק" שיחסל אותה. זה לאו דווקא נגמר טוב עבור "העם", אבל זה לקח חשוב ל"דמוקרטים" בעיני עצמם – אם הדמוקרטיה שלכם תהיה אוליגרכיה אז "העם" יהיה נגד הדמוקרטיה. ובאופן דומה, אם הבית היהודי רוצה להיות יותר עממית ופחות מגזרית, סמכויות רבות צריכות להינתן ליו"ר כדי שיכפה את רצונו על האוליגארכיה העסקנית של המפד”ל.
ואיזה בעסה אם פתאום כולם יעשו את זה?
מדובר במהלך של הקרבה. אתה לא יכול להיות משפיע אם אתה לא מושפע ואתה לא יכול להוביל את העם אם אתה מתבדל ממנו. אז הדתיים לאומיים עומדים להרוג את "המגזר" וחובשי הכיפה יהפכו ל"סתם ישראלים". ולהיות "סתם ישראלי" זו פריווילגיה גדולה והסממן המרכזי לאליטה. "סתם ישראלי" הוא הדיפולט, המיינסטרים, המובן מאליו. פעם, דמות ה"סתם ישראלי" הייתה של הצבר האשכנזי המפא"יניק וכל השאר היו ישראלי דתי, ישראלי רוסי, ישראלי מזרחי ועוד. בסוף המהלך הזה, חובש הכיפה הסרוגה הקטנה סטייל בנט יחליף את "אליק שנולד מן הים" כדמותו של הישראלי הגנרי. והערכים של הדתיים הלאומיים, גם אם באופן מדולל משהו, יהפכו להיות ערכים מרכזיים ומובילים בחברה הישראלית, מבלי שיהיה עליהם תיוג "דוסי" או "מתנחלי". מבלי שהם יהיו "אחר".
התיאוריה מאוד יפה ונכונה, לפחות מבחינת הבית היהודי אבל השאלה היא מה יקרה בפועל. את האופוריה של מחנה בנט במפלגה אני לוקח בערבון מוגבל משום שהבית היהודי כנראה מנסה לנגוס יותר ממה שהיא יכולה לבלוע. הוויתור בפועל על המגזריות יהיה חלקי מאוד, והמתחים בין מחוברים ללא מחוברים בתוך המפלגה הרחבה יותר עלולים לגדול. הרעיון שאפשר להיות מפלגה כלל ישראלית ש"המגזר" עדיין מוביל ומנהיג אותה אולי נשמע טבעי למי שספוג בשיח המתנשא על המגזר "האיכותי ביותר", “התורם ביותר", “החלוצי ביותר", “הגשר שמחבר בין חלקי העם" ושאר סופרלטיבים שדתיים לאומיים רבים נוטים לשפוך על עצמם. אבל ישראלים לא אוהבים שמתנשאים עליהם והתבטלות בסגנון איילת שקד של אנשים מבחוץ כלפי חובשי כיפה היא, בסופו של דבר, משאב מוגבל.
אני גם מנחש שבנט יעדיף להרחיב את המפלגה לא לפריפריה אלא למרכז החילוני המבוסס. הרעיון לכבוש את תל אביב קוסם מדי. קוסם הרבה יותר מאשר לכבוש את נתיבות ודימונה. אז לכל היותר, אותו צמד חמד של מפא"י ומפד"ל עומדים להתחלף במושבים הקדמיים והפריפריה תמשיך לשבת במושב האחורי. ואם המפד"ל ז"ל רוצה להיות מפא"י החדשה, האליטה שמגדירה את הישראליות בצלמה ובדמותה, ייתכן בהחלט שהיא גם תגמור כמוה. לא כל כך טוב בשביל הבית היהודי, אבל טוב בשביל מדינת ישראל.
הצד החיובי במהלך זה גם עבור מי שאינו נמנה עם תומכי הבית היהודי, כמוני, הוא שכל דבר ששובר מעט את המבנה המגזרי הקשיח של הפוליטיקה הישראלית מבורך בעיניי. לכן, אשמח אם עוד מפלגות יעשו מהלך דומה ובראשן מרצ. מרצ, לכאורה, הייתה יכולה להפוך למפלגה כלל ישראלית בקלות רבה יותר שכן היא בכלל לא מגדירה את עצמה כמפלגה מגזרית. אבל בדיוק בגלל זה הבית היהודי הקדים אותה. להבדיל ממרצ, מפלגת הבית היהודי מעולם לא הכחישה את המגזריות של עצמה ולכן יכלה לעשות משהו בקשר לזה. הרי אי אפשר לפתור בעיה שבכלל לא מודים בקיומה.
ככל שיותר מפלגות יפעלו כך התועלת האלקטורלית עבור כל מפלגה תפחת, אבל הפוליטיקה הישראלית תיפתח יותר לכלל הישראלים ולא רק לקבוצות הכוח המגזריות המחוברות ובעיקר, תיפתח לתחרות אמיתית על ליבו של הציבור ועל השלטון. בתסריט האופטימי, בכל המפלגות והגושים יהיו מזרחים, דוברי רוסית ואשכנזים, מסורתיים, דתיים, חרדים וחילונים, מרכז ופריפריה, יהודים ושאינם יהודים ואז נוכל להתחיל להתווכח על עמדות וחזון ולא על "תלאביבים נגד מתנחלים" ושאר שטויות. ואולי כך ייגמר בישראל, סוף סוף, עידן החונטות שחושבות ש"לשלטון בחרתנו". לא יודע מה אתכם, אבל לי הספיקה מפא"י אחת, "כור היתוך" אחד ו"בלי חירות ומק"י" אחד.
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